From my experience working with over 500+ VCE students over the last 7 years, a pretty reasonable, statistically-supported conclusion from what I've gathered would be:
To go from below-average/average to Top 1-3% (work ethic)
To go from Top 1-3% to Top 0.1% (talent + a bit of luck)
I am 100% certain that any hard-working student (as long as you do not have any learning disabilities and are in an environment where you are supported with your studies), with the right support system and an efficient + effective study process - can score in the Top 1.5-2% of the state (in fact, over the last few years, i've offered a 45+ raw study score guarantee for any dedicated student who is willing to put in effort when working with me link: https://edatlas.com.au/vce-raw-study-score-guarantee-edatlas/).
Now, while a 45 raw in a subject like Specialist is realistically still Top 2-3 at 99% of schools in the state, to really go from a 45 raw to a 50 raw in Specialist requires a bit more than hard work - and requires a baseline level of talent + luck.
From my experience, this principle holds for a lot of activities in life. If you train everyday and truly commit in a sport like basketball, it's perceivable that you could one day be a Top 1% basketball player in the country. But if you wanted to make the NBA (the top 450 or so players in the world)? You not only need to work hard but also need a certain level of baseline talent in the sport (as well as genetic factors such as height).
P.S. For those curious about how I am so confident that our process + hard work yields results - the guarantee is pretty simple
We give you several booklets of our proprietary question sets, we test you on the booklet questions (sourced word-for-word from the booklets, so you should have done them before) - and as long as you've mastered our booklets (i.e. 90%+ on all tests) - you'll get at least a 45 raw. And if you don't? Your entire tuition (including U1/2 if you've studied with us) - is free.
It's not an easy process - but anyone with a deeply committed work ethic can get there.